General Overview The macroeconomic environment in the third quarter of 2025 showed clear signs of fragility. The main economic blocs slowed, and in July, the International Monetary Fund revised global economic growth down to 3%. The main drivers of this slowdown are the persistence of trade tensions and the continuation of relatively restrictive monetary policies. In the United States, the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance, also due to the impact of new import tari

General Overview Tariffs, tariffs, and more tariffs. The second quarter was dominated by threats and economic policy measures that sparked a full-blown trade war between the United States and many of the world’s major economies. A “war,” in fact, that adds to those conflicts that have been reshaping global geopolitical dynamics for years. The quarter opened with the newly elected U.S. President announcing on April 2, “Liberation Day”, the imposition of outdated customs tariff

General Overview During the first quarter of 2025, the global economy entered a transitional phase marked by evolving monetary policies, rising geopolitical tensions, and increased volatility in financial markets. In January, Donald Trump was sworn in for his second term as President of the United States and promptly adopted bold measures. Alongside diplomatic initiatives aimed at brokering a ceasefire in Gaza and resolving the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv, he also advanc

General Overview 2024 looked like a transitional year. Geopolitical issues and interest rate cuts were the dominant themes. Ongoing conflicts showed no signs of de-escalation, while central banks initiated a policy of interest rate reductions following inflation stabilization, albeit more gradually than initially expected. In the last quarter of the year, the ECB implemented a double 25-basis-point cut, bringing the reference refi rate to 3.15% (making it -1.35% in the year).

General Overview The strength demonstrated by financial markets during the third quarter of the year—and continuing as of the date of this report—seems to contrast sharply with the international context. The tensions between Palestinians and Israelis have escalated into a full-scale war involving Lebanon and Iran, with the latter launching rockets toward Israel. The approach of the U.S. elections, which saw a shift in the Democratic camp between July and August from the incum

General Overview Accustomed to the chaos of recent years, the second quarter of the year passed without too many jolts, except for those related to the political world, such as the results of the European elections and the prospect of the upcoming American elections in November. On the one hand, the possibility of political instability following the European elections in France generated some fears and caused the markets to fluctuate for a few days; on the other hand, the fir

General Overview The macroeconomic picture in the first quarter of 2024 remained almost unchanged compared to the end of 2023. Major global conflicts continue without signs of slowing down, while inflation rates have maintained the trend from late 2023, marking a stabilization at levels still far from the ideal 2%. Economies thus demonstrate significant resistance to interest rate hikes, prompting central banks to postpone their downward adjustments. Some Numbers In Italy, th