REPORT 3Q-2025 | Economic and RE data

General Overview

The macroeconomic environment in the third quarter of 2025 showed clear signs of fragility. The main economic blocs slowed, and in July, the International Monetary Fund revised global economic growth down to 3%. The main drivers of this slowdown are the persistence of trade tensions and the continuation of relatively restrictive monetary policies.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance, also due to the impact of new import tariffs and concerns about renewed inflationary pressures; in the Eurozone, low growth persisted, with inflation declining but still above the targets of some central banks.

From a geopolitical perspective, the period was marked by the continuation of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, with repercussions on energy security and trade. While signs of peace, or at least a ceasefire, are being sought, a process of global polarization appears to be taking hold, reshaping alliances as well as trade and economic flows.

In this climate of heightened uncertainty, companies are advised to adopt a careful approach that considers all variables at play. Especially in the financial sphere, which is typically the first to be affected by shocks arising from changes in macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, it is essential to remain steady and disciplined.

Some Figures

After GDP growth stabilized at 0.4% year on year in the third quarter, the Italian economy maintains a 0.6% growth forecast for 2025, compared with the Eurozone's 1.2% forecast. Italian inflation data show stability, with the figure settling at 1.6%, lower than the Eurozone and US figures, which stand at 3% and have not yet reached desired levels. For this reason, the Federal Reserve resumed rate cuts during the quarter, albeit limited to 25 bps, bringing the benchmark rate to 4.25%; the Bank of England did the same in August (current rate at 4%).

Data on Italy’s unemployment rate are encouraging. Compared with the previous quarter, unemployment declined across all age groups and in all areas analyzed, reaching 5.6% among the population aged 15 to 74 (ISTAT data).

Real Estate Market

Although the ECB has not implemented further cuts in the cost of money, the current stability has continued to support the Italian real estate market. The number of residential property transactions increased by more than 8% in 2Q-2025 (latest available data) compared with the same quarter of 2024; considering the entire first half of the year, transactions rose by 9.5% nationwide, by 9.6% in Lombardy, and by almost 10% in the metropolitan city of Milan.

In this economic context, transactions supported by bank mortgages increased. In Italy, mortgaged residential transactions carried out by individuals accounted for 40.1% of the total in 2Q-2023, 41.4% in 2Q-2024, and rose to 45.9% in the second quarter of 2025. Growth remains significant even when the analysis is limited to residential transactions in Lombardy and in the province of Milan. In the first six months of the year, transactions involving newly built properties accounted for 5.5% of total transactions.

The number of buildings for which construction permits were issued decreased by 12% compared with 365 days earlier for residential buildings and by 7% for commercial buildings.

Price measurements carried out by ISTAT through the IPAB index recorded a 2.7% increase between 2Q-2025 and 1Q-2025, while immobiliare.it reports increases of 2.57% and 6% in asking prices for residential properties for sale and for rent, respectively, between September 2024 and September 2025.

The analysis of commercial property transactions shows an increase in the number of deals compared with the same quarter of 2024 (+5.5%); however, partly due to a weaker first quarter, the first half of 2025 records a smaller increase compared with the early months of 2025 at the national level (+4.3%) and even a negative trend for transactions completed in Lombardy and in the regional capital.

Data Sources: Agenzia delle Entrate, ISTAT, tradingeconomics.com, and immobiliare.it

Data Processing: Darian RE

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